When Machines Think
The Singularity — When Machines Think — is an era in which our intelligence will become increasingly nonbiological and trillions of times more powerful than it is today. The dawning of a new civilization that will enable us to transcend our biological limitations and amplify our creativity. “Within 10 years, we’ll have computers that are as powerful as the human brain,” says author and futurist Robert J. Sawyer, who is among the world’s leading sci-fi thinkers and one of only seven writers in history (and the only Canadian) to win all three of the world’s top science fiction awards for best novel of the year. “And within 30 years, we’ll have computers that will behave indistinguishably from human beings in terms of creativity and intelligence. They will, for all intents and purposes, be conscious.”
There are several technologies that are often mentioned as heading in this direction. The most commonly mentioned is probably Artificial Intelligence, but there are others: direct brain-computer interfaces, biological augmentation of the brain, genetic engineering, ultra-high-resolution scans of the brain followed by computer emulation. Some of these technologies seem likely to arrive much earlier than the others, but there are nonetheless several independent technologies all heading in the direction of the Singularity — several different technologies which, if they reached a threshold level of sophistication, would enable the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence.
Human intelligence is the foundation of human technology; all technology is ultimately the product of intelligence. If technology can turn around and enhance intelligence, this closes the loop, creating a positive feedback effect. Smarter minds will be more effective at building still smarter minds. This loop appears most clearly in the example of an Artificial Intelligence improving its own source code, but it would also arise, albeit initially on a slower timescale, from humans with direct brain-computer interfaces creating the next generation of brain-computer interfaces, or biologically augmented humans working on an Artificial Intelligence project.
The Singularity is beyond huge, but it can begin with something small. If one smarter-than-human intelligence exists, that mind will find it easier to create still smarter minds. In this respect the dynamic of the Singularity resembles other cases where small causes can have large effects; toppling the first domino in a chain, starting an avalanche with a pebble, perturbing an upright object balanced on its tip. All it takes is one technology — Artificial Intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, or perhaps something unforeseen — that advances to the point of creating smarter-than-human minds. That one technological advance is the equivalent of the first self-replicating chemical that gave rise to life on Earth.